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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
2
1
3
6
2
2
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
28
26
61
2
1
3
6
9
29
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
14
0
14
29
14
43
86
29
29
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
42
39
91
3
1
4
9
13
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.463
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.10 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.194
true Heidke skill score: 0.276 true Heidke skill score: 0.053
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.194
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.452 0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.417 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.045 0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.966 0.103
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.541 0.500
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00