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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
4
2
7
2
4
2
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
25
27
60
1
4
2
7
9
29
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
13
0
0
13
13
50
25
88
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
37
40
90
1
6
3
10
13
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.403
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.25 3.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.07 0.24
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.104
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.053
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.104
true Kuipers skill score: -0.050 true Kuipers skill score: -0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.286
threat score:
0.000 0.391 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.026 -0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.862 0.069
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.583 0.714
samples: 8 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 11.94 %coverage: 100.00