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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
6
2
2
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
27
27
61
2
2
2
6
9
29
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
33
100
33
33
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
40
40
91
3
3
3
9
13
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.10 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.429 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.016 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.931 0.069
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.557 0.667
samples: 6 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 8.96 %coverage: 100.00