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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
3
2
1
1
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
28
28
64
1
1
1
3
9
29
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
0
0
25
25
25
25
75
50
25
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
42
42
96
1
1
1
4
13
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.21 0.10
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.431 0.032
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.008 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.966 0.034
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.562 0.667
samples: 4 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 5.97 %coverage: 100.00