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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
2
4
2
1
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
28
27
63
1
1
2
4
9
29
29
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
20
20
20
40
80
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
42
40
94
1
1
3
6
13
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.448
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.17 0.14
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.172
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.172
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.025
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.438 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.020 0.009
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.966 0.069
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.556 0.500
samples: 5 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 7.46 %coverage: 100.00