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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
1
3
4
2
1
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
23
30
63
0
1
3
4
10
24
33
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
0
0
33
0
17
50
67
33
17
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
34
45
94
0
1
4
6
15
36
49
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.62 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: 0.182 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: 0.182 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.359 0.088
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 0.500
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.010 0.032
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.958 0.091
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.635 0.250
samples: 6 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 8.96 %coverage: 100.00