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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
2
4
4
15
23
4
5
16
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
14
28
44
4
4
15
23
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
8
16
16
60
92
16
20
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
21
42
66
6
6
22
34
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.640 hitrate: 0.433
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.40 1.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.44 0.53
Heidke skill score: 0.460 Heidke skill score: 0.149
true Heidke skill score: 0.089 true Heidke skill score: 0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.460 Kuipers skill score: 0.149
true Kuipers skill score: 0.067 true Kuipers skill score: 0.071
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.625
threat score:
0.000 0.292 0.294
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.107 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.060 0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.200 0.938
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.349
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.348
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.682 0.348
samples: 25 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 37.31 %coverage: 100.00