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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
3
3
11
17
3
3
13
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
15
32
50
3
3
11
17
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
11
11
16
16
58
89
16
16
68
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
22
48
75
4
4
16
25
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.579 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.67 1.31
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.78 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.368 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.134 true Heidke skill score: 0.039
Kuipers skill score: 0.368 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.103 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.579
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.224
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.067 -0.086
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.040 0.002
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.846
probability of detection:
0.000 0.833 0.256
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.700 0.353
samples: 19 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 28.36 %coverage: 100.00