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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
7
3
4
6
13
3
4
13
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
14
37
54
3
4
6
13
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
35
35
15
20
30
65
15
20
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
21
55
81
4
6
9
19
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.300 hitrate: 0.299
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.75 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.050 Heidke skill score: -0.052
true Heidke skill score: -0.379 true Heidke skill score: -0.065
Kuipers skill score: -0.050 Kuipers skill score: -0.052
true Kuipers skill score: -0.374 true Kuipers skill score: -0.084
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.300
threat score:
0.000 0.241 0.120
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.146 -0.212
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.012 -0.056
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.462
probability of detection:
0.000 0.778 0.140
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.538
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.741 0.538
samples: 20 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 29.85 %coverage: 100.00