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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
7
9
2
2
1
5
3
3
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
16
42
62
2
2
1
5
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
7
7
50
64
14
14
7
36
21
21
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
24
63
93
3
3
1
7
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 0.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.44 0.12
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.302 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.342 true Kuipers skill score: -0.084
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.021
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.102 -0.203
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.014 -0.050
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.125
probability of detection:
0.000 0.889 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.889 0.800
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.742 0.800
samples: 14 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 20.90 %coverage: 100.00