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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
1
5
7
2
1
1
4
3
2
7
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
4
17
41
62
2
1
1
4
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
8
8
42
58
17
8
8
33
25
17
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
6
25
61
93
3
1
1
6
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.167 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 3.50 0.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 3.44 0.09
Heidke skill score: -0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: -0.212 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: -0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: -0.256 true Kuipers skill score: -0.039
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.100
threat score:
0.000 0.270 0.022
equitable threat score:
-0.067 -0.024 -0.174
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.007 -0.036
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.143
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.857 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.726 0.750
samples: 12 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 17.91 %coverage: 100.00