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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
1
1
1
3
1
0
1
2
2
2
7
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
5
6
5
17
37
59
1
0
1
2
6
18
43
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
45
55
9
9
9
27
9
0
9
18
18
18
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
7
9
7
25
55
88
1
0
1
3
9
27
64
100

hitrate: 0.182 hitrate: 0.269
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.50 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 3.28 0.05
Heidke skill score: -0.227 Heidke skill score: -0.097
true Heidke skill score: -0.112 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.227 Kuipers skill score: -0.097
true Kuipers skill score: -0.156 true Kuipers skill score: 0.010
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.125
threat score:
0.000 0.283 0.023
equitable threat score:
-0.158 0.132 -0.041
equitable threat score:
-0.047 0.026 -0.007
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.143
probability of detection:
0.000 0.944 0.023
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.712 0.500
samples: 11 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 16.42 %coverage: 100.00