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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
1
2
3
1
0
1
2
1
1
5
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
5
11
47
63
1
0
1
2
6
11
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
29
29
0
14
29
43
14
0
14
29
14
14
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
7
16
70
94
1
0
1
3
9
16
75
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.179
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 3.00 0.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 5.73 0.04
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.231
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.231
true Kuipers skill score: -0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.001
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.175 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.105 0.222 -0.094
equitable threat score:
-0.023 0.012 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.200
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.020
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.667 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.825 0.500
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00