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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
9
11
1
4
29
34
1
6
38
45

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
10
21
33
1
4
29
34
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
20
24
2
9
64
76
2
13
84
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
15
31
49
1
6
43
51
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.689 hitrate: 0.582
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.83 0.89
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.36 0.68
Heidke skill score: 0.533 Heidke skill score: 0.373
true Heidke skill score: 0.055 true Heidke skill score: 0.194
Kuipers skill score: 0.533 Kuipers skill score: 0.373
true Kuipers skill score: 0.068 true Kuipers skill score: 0.253
threat score:
0.000 0.133 0.674
threat score:
0.000 0.270 0.527
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.039 0.020
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.103 0.122
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.763
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.580
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.818 0.147
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.697 0.147
samples: 45 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 67.16 %coverage: 100.00