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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
6
1
3
24
28
1
5
28
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
11
26
39
1
3
24
28
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
12
18
3
9
71
82
3
15
82
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
16
39
58
1
4
36
42
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.765 hitrate: 0.522
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.20 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.79 0.56
Heidke skill score: 0.647 Heidke skill score: 0.284
true Heidke skill score: 0.205 true Heidke skill score: 0.157
Kuipers skill score: 0.647 Kuipers skill score: 0.284
true Kuipers skill score: 0.202 true Kuipers skill score: 0.224
threat score:
0.000 0.222 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.262 0.444
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.138 0.105
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.084 0.094
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.857
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.480
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.718 0.143
samples: 34 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 50.75 %coverage: 100.00