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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
6
7
1
3
15
19
1
4
21
26

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
11
35
48
1
3
15
19
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
4
23
27
4
12
58
73
4
15
81
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
16
52
72
1
4
22
28
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.615 hitrate: 0.388
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.75 0.90
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.43 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.423 Heidke skill score: 0.082
true Heidke skill score: -0.044 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.423 Kuipers skill score: 0.082
true Kuipers skill score: -0.050 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.216 0.278
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 -0.036
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.024 0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.857 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.771 0.211
samples: 26 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 38.81 %coverage: 100.00