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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
1
3
5
9
1
3
11
15

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
11
45
58
1
3
5
9
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
40
7
20
33
60
7
20
73
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
16
67
87
1
4
7
13
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.239
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.82
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.14 0.18
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.142
true Heidke skill score: -0.389 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.142
true Kuipers skill score: -0.447 true Kuipers skill score: -0.107
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.180 0.093
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.154 -0.190
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.023 -0.036
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.455
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.810 0.444
samples: 15 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 22.39 %coverage: 100.00