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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
2
5
8
1
2
7
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
12
45
59
1
2
5
8
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
10
20
50
80
10
20
70
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
18
67
88
1
3
7
12
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.14
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.21 0.16
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: -0.217 true Kuipers skill score: -0.049
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.197 0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 -0.136
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.007 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.714
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.797 0.375
samples: 10 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 14.93 %coverage: 100.00