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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
4
6
1
1
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
13
46
61
1
1
4
6
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
67
100
17
17
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
19
69
91
1
1
6
9
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.254
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.36 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.119
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.004
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.119
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.008
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.210 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.005 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.080
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.787 0.333
samples: 6 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 8.96 %coverage: 100.00