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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
2
4
1
1
3
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
13
48
63
1
1
2
4
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
20
20
40
80
20
20
60
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
19
72
94
1
1
3
6
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.224
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.50 0.08
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.164
true Heidke skill score: -0.250 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.164
true Kuipers skill score: -0.214 true Kuipers skill score: -0.043
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.203 0.038
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 -0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.003 -0.020
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.040
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.794 0.500
samples: 5 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 7.46 %coverage: 100.00