CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200207-200209

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
3
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
2
12
48
62
1
2
1
4
3
14
50
67

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
14
14
0
14
14
29
14
29
14
57
14
43
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
3
18
72
93
1
3
1
6
4
21
75
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.194
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.67 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 4.43 0.08
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.209
true Heidke skill score: -0.167 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.209
true Kuipers skill score: -0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.112
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.167
threat score:
0.000 0.188 0.019
equitable threat score:
-0.077 0.045 -0.167
equitable threat score:
-0.011 -0.019 -0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.020
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.806 0.750
samples: 7 out of 67 samples: 67 out of 67
%coverage: 10.45 %coverage: 100.00