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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
5
6
14
3
5
6
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
9
23
52
3
5
6
14
23
14
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
36
43
100
21
36
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
14
35
79
5
8
9
21
35
21
44
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.227
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.71 0.48
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.045
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.052
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.429
threat score:
0.000 0.158 0.162
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.044 -0.005
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.643 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.827 0.571
samples: 14 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 21.21 %coverage: 100.00