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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
6
11
3
2
6
11

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
12
23
55
3
2
6
11
23
14
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
27
18
55
100
27
18
55
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
18
35
83
5
3
9
17
35
21
44
100

hitrate: 0.545 hitrate: 0.273
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 1.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.93 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.318 Heidke skill score: -0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.318 Kuipers skill score: -0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.035
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.545
threat score:
0.000 0.211 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.007 0.040
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.455
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.782 0.455
samples: 11 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 16.67 %coverage: 100.00