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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
6
13
3
4
6
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
10
23
53
3
4
6
13
23
14
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
23
31
46
100
23
31
46
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
30
15
35
80
5
6
9
20
35
21
44
100

hitrate: 0.462 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.79 0.45
Heidke skill score: 0.192 Heidke skill score: -0.136
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.192 Kuipers skill score: -0.136
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.023
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.462
threat score:
0.000 0.175 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.027 0.010
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.714 0.207
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.538
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.811 0.538
samples: 13 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 19.70 %coverage: 100.00