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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
2
3
5
1
2
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
12
26
61
0
2
3
5
23
14
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
17
0
33
50
83
17
33
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
18
39
92
0
3
5
8
35
21
44
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.227
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 1.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.36 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: -0.159
true Heidke skill score: 0.053 true Heidke skill score: -0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: -0.159
true Kuipers skill score: 0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.600
threat score:
0.000 0.190 0.097
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 0.028
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.103
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.803 0.400
samples: 6 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 9.09 %coverage: 100.00