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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
0
1
5
6
2
2
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
13
24
60
0
1
5
6
23
14
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
22
11
0
33
0
11
56
67
22
22
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
35
20
36
91
0
2
8
9
35
21
44
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.273
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.50 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.29 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.091
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.091
true Kuipers skill score: 0.375 true Kuipers skill score: 0.062
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.833
threat score:
0.000 0.213 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.100 0.625
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.006 0.086
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.929 0.172
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.783 0.167
samples: 9 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 13.64 %coverage: 100.00