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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
32
13
64
0
2
0
2
19
34
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
33
33
0
67
0
67
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
48
20
97
0
3
0
3
29
52
20
100

hitrate: 0.000 hitrate: 0.485
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.88 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.227
true Heidke skill score: -0.800 true Heidke skill score: -0.042
Kuipers skill score: -0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.227
true Kuipers skill score: -1.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.485 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.286 -0.286
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.029 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 1.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00