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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
2
3
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
33
11
63
0
1
2
3
19
34
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
40
40
0
20
40
60
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
50
17
95
0
2
3
5
29
52
20
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.530
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.85 0.23
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.295
true Heidke skill score: -0.364 true Heidke skill score: 0.059
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.295
true Kuipers skill score: -0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.048
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.516 0.143
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.154 -0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.105
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.971 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.476 0.333
samples: 5 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 7.58 %coverage: 100.00