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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
4
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
19
34
9
62
0
0
2
2
19
34
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
50
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
3
3
29
52
14
94
0
0
3
3
29
52
20
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.545
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 1.82 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.318
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.318
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.076
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.548 0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.028 0.069 0.127
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.452 0.000
samples: 4 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 6.06 %coverage: 100.00