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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200209-200211

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
19
34
10
63
0
0
2
2
19
34
13
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
33
33
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
67
0
0
100
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
29
52
15
95
0
0
3
3
29
52
20
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.545
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- -- 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.05 1.85 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: 0.318
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.087
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: 0.318
true Kuipers skill score: nan true Kuipers skill score: 0.071
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.540 0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.015 0.051 0.127
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.460 0.000
samples: 3 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 4.55 %coverage: 100.00