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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200211-200301

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
7
25
61
0
1
4
5
29
8
29
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
44
11
38
92
0
2
6
8
44
12
44
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.167
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 7.62 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.250
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.250
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.113 0.133
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.007 0.065
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.875 0.138
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.885 0.200
samples: 5 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 7.58 %coverage: 100.00