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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
4
5
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
28
12
20
60
0
1
4
5
28
13
24
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
80
100
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
18
31
92
0
2
6
8
43
20
37
100

hitrate: 0.800 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.62 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.700 Heidke skill score: -0.131
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.700 Kuipers skill score: -0.131
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.800
threat score:
0.000 0.197 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.093
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.200
samples: 5 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 7.69 %coverage: 100.00