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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
1
2
6
3
1
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
25
12
22
59
3
1
2
6
28
13
24
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
17
33
100
50
17
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
18
34
91
5
2
3
9
43
20
37
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.215
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.54 0.25
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.177
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.177
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.071
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 -0.008
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.083
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.797 0.667
samples: 6 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 9.23 %coverage: 100.00