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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18
8
7
33
18
8
7
33

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
5
17
32
18
8
7
33
28
13
24
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
55
24
21
100
55
24
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
8
26
49
28
12
11
51
43
20
37
100

hitrate: 0.212 hitrate: 0.185
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.46 1.38
Heidke skill score: -0.182 Heidke skill score: -0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.142
Kuipers skill score: -0.182 Kuipers skill score: -0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.159
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.212
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.140
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.042 -0.137
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.385 0.292
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.788
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.844 0.788
samples: 33 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 50.77 %coverage: 100.00