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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
6
5
27
16
6
5
27

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
12
7
19
38
16
6
5
27
28
13
24
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
59
22
19
100
59
22
19
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
11
29
58
25
9
8
42
43
20
37
100

hitrate: 0.185 hitrate: 0.185
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 5.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.92 1.12
Heidke skill score: -0.222 Heidke skill score: -0.223
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.117
Kuipers skill score: -0.222 Kuipers skill score: -0.223
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.134
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.185
threat score:
0.000 0.159 0.109
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.016 -0.138
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.538 0.208
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.815
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.816 0.815
samples: 27 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 41.54 %coverage: 100.00