CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
5
3
5
13
18
19
3
40
23
23
9
55

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
5
4
15
24
18
19
3
40
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
9
5
9
24
33
35
5
73
42
42
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
3
8
6
23
36
27
29
5
61
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.109 hitrate: 0.106
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 0.57 4.44
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.09 1.00 2.11
Heidke skill score: -0.336 Heidke skill score: -0.341
true Heidke skill score: -0.162 true Heidke skill score: -0.309
Kuipers skill score: -0.336 Kuipers skill score: -0.341
true Kuipers skill score: -0.199 true Kuipers skill score: -0.318
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.091 0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.035 -0.088 -0.090
equitable threat score:
-0.029 -0.134 -0.191
probability of detection:
0.000 0.130 0.333
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.769 0.925
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.833 0.925
samples: 55 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 83.33 %coverage: 100.00