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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
2
2
7
20
21
7
48
23
23
9
55

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
3
12
18
20
21
7
48
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
4
4
13
36
38
13
87
42
42
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
5
18
27
30
32
11
73
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.164 hitrate: 0.152
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.30 5.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.75 2.53
Heidke skill score: -0.255 Heidke skill score: -0.273
true Heidke skill score: -0.040 true Heidke skill score: -0.227
Kuipers skill score: -0.255 Kuipers skill score: -0.273
true Kuipers skill score: -0.052 true Kuipers skill score: -0.237
threat score:
0.000 0.071 0.140
threat score:
0.000 0.077 0.117
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.037 -0.020
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.109 -0.148
probability of detection:
0.000 0.087 0.778
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.714 0.854
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.833 0.854
samples: 55 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 83.33 %coverage: 100.00