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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
23
22
6
51
23
22
7
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
2
13
15
23
22
6
51
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
44
42
12
98
44
42
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
3
20
23
35
33
9
77
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.115 hitrate: 0.121
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.05 7.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.62 2.68
Heidke skill score: -0.327 Heidke skill score: -0.318
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.265
Kuipers skill score: -0.327 Kuipers skill score: -0.318
true Kuipers skill score: -0.041 true Kuipers skill score: -0.277
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.115
threat score:
0.000 0.054 0.094
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.019 -0.019
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.110 -0.176
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.857
probability of detection:
0.000 0.083 0.316
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.882
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.867 0.882
samples: 52 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 78.79 %coverage: 100.00