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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
22
23
7
52
22
23
7
52

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
1
12
14
22
23
7
52
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
42
44
13
100
42
44
13
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
18
21
33
35
11
79
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.135 hitrate: 0.121
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 7.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.58 2.74
Heidke skill score: -0.298 Heidke skill score: -0.318
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.263
Kuipers skill score: -0.298 Kuipers skill score: -0.318
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.275
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.135
threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.109
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.128 -0.163
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.042 0.368
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.865
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.929 0.865
samples: 52 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 78.79 %coverage: 100.00