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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
22
21
4
47
22
21
5
48

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
3
15
19
22
21
4
47
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
46
44
8
98
46
44
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
5
23
29
33
32
6
71
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.083 hitrate: 0.106
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.05 9.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.79 2.47
Heidke skill score: -0.375 Heidke skill score: -0.341
true Heidke skill score: -0.031 true Heidke skill score: -0.295
Kuipers skill score: -0.375 Kuipers skill score: -0.341
true Kuipers skill score: -0.047 true Kuipers skill score: -0.307
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.075 0.065
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.020 -0.021
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.118 -0.197
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.125 0.211
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.915
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.842 0.915
samples: 48 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 72.73 %coverage: 100.00