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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
21
20
3
44
21
20
5
46

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
4
16
22
21
20
3
44
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
46
43
7
96
46
43
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
3
6
24
33
32
30
5
67
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.065 hitrate: 0.106
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.10 8.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.92 2.32
Heidke skill score: -0.402 Heidke skill score: -0.341
true Heidke skill score: -0.066 true Heidke skill score: -0.301
Kuipers skill score: -0.402 Kuipers skill score: -0.341
true Kuipers skill score: -0.098 true Kuipers skill score: -0.312
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.095 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.041 -0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.118 -0.204
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.167 0.158
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.932
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.818 0.932
samples: 46 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 69.70 %coverage: 100.00