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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
17
12
2
31
17
12
5
34

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
12
17
35
17
12
2
31
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
9
9
50
35
6
91
50
35
15
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
9
18
26
53
26
18
3
47
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.059 hitrate: 0.212
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.25 6.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.46 1.63
Heidke skill score: -0.412 Heidke skill score: -0.182
true Heidke skill score: -0.127 true Heidke skill score: -0.173
Kuipers skill score: -0.412 Kuipers skill score: -0.182
true Kuipers skill score: -0.176 true Kuipers skill score: -0.175
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.059
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.076 -0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.021 -0.177
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.400
probability of detection:
0.000 0.500 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.935
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.657 0.935
samples: 34 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 51.52 %coverage: 100.00