CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 11.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
18
10
2
30
18
10
3
31

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
14
17
36
18
10
2
30
23
24
19
66

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
58
32
6
97
58
32
10
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
21
26
55
27
15
3
45
35
36
29
100

hitrate: 0.065 hitrate: 0.242
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.10 10.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.50 1.58
Heidke skill score: -0.403 Heidke skill score: -0.136
true Heidke skill score: -0.044 true Heidke skill score: -0.129
Kuipers skill score: -0.403 Kuipers skill score: -0.136
true Kuipers skill score: -0.072 true Kuipers skill score: -0.131
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.065
threat score:
0.000 0.304 0.043
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.030 -0.032
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.028 -0.173
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.583 0.105
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.933
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.611 0.933
samples: 31 out of 66 samples: 66 out of 66
%coverage: 46.97 %coverage: 100.00