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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199501-199503

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
3
4
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
4
9
17
18
13
48
0
0
0
0
19
21
17
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
25
33
75
8
8
8
25
0
0
0
0
25
33
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
7
16
30
32
23
84
0
0
0
0
33
37
30
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.75 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 2.29 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: -0.032 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.200 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.077 0.353 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.032 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.043 0.009 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.105 0.857 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.625 0.000
samples: 12 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 21.05 %coverage: 100.00