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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
4
9
1
1
1
3
0
0
0
0
5
2
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
1
4
9
18
16
14
48
0
0
0
0
22
17
18
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
8
33
75
8
8
8
25
0
0
0
0
42
17
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
2
7
16
32
28
25
84
0
0
0
0
39
30
32
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.351
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.80 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 2.82 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.026
true Heidke skill score: 0.097 true Heidke skill score: 0.056
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.026
true Kuipers skill score: 0.100 true Kuipers skill score: 0.059
threat score:
0.400 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.148 0.327 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.040 0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.022 0.049 0.000
probability of detection:
0.800 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.182 0.941 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.556 0.667 0.000
samples: 12 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 21.05 %coverage: 100.00