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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199502-199504

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
1
9
1
0
4
5
0
0
0
0
3
6
5
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
6
1
9
20
11
17
48
0
0
0
0
22
17
18
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
43
7
64
7
0
29
36
0
0
0
0
21
43
36
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
11
2
16
35
19
30
84
0
0
0
0
39
30
32
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 0.83 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.41 2.82 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.209 true Heidke skill score: -0.122
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.230 true Kuipers skill score: -0.127
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.000
threat score:
0.069 0.204 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.009 -0.242 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.058 -0.084 0.000
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.000
probability of detection:
0.091 0.647 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.771 0.000
samples: 14 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 24.56 %coverage: 100.00