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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
3
2
7
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
1
5
9
12
11
25
48
0
0
0
0
15
12
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
8
42
75
0
8
17
25
0
0
0
0
25
17
58
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
2
9
16
21
19
44
84
0
0
0
0
26
21
53
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.246
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 4.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.132
true Heidke skill score: 0.135 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.132
true Kuipers skill score: 0.183 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.333 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.143 0.224 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.111 0.143 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.034 0.023 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.200 0.917 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.771 0.000
samples: 12 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 21.05 %coverage: 100.00