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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
9
1
1
3
5
0
0
0
0
2
4
8
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
3
5
9
14
9
25
48
0
0
0
0
15
12
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
21
36
64
7
7
21
36
0
0
0
0
14
29
57
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
5
9
16
25
16
44
84
0
0
0
0
26
21
53
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.175
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.50 1.25 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.60 4.00 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.237
true Heidke skill score: -0.063 true Heidke skill score: -0.056
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.237
true Kuipers skill score: -0.089 true Kuipers skill score: -0.071
threat score:
0.100 0.125 0.000
threat score:
0.043 0.176 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.065 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.066 -0.027 0.000
probability of detection:
0.500 0.250 0.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.800 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.889 0.812 0.000
samples: 14 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 24.56 %coverage: 100.00