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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199503-199505

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 2.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
3
1
1
5
2
0
4
6
5
4
9
18

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
4
7
13
9
22
44
2
0
4
6
15
12
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
17
22
39
17
6
6
28
11
0
22
33
28
22
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
7
12
23
16
39
77
4
0
7
11
26
21
53
100

hitrate: 0.278 hitrate: 0.228
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.40 1.25 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.47 3.67 0.20
Heidke skill score: -0.083 Heidke skill score: -0.158
true Heidke skill score: -0.088 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: -0.083 Kuipers skill score: -0.158
true Kuipers skill score: -0.094 true Kuipers skill score: -0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.125 0.364
threat score:
0.000 0.191 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.193 -0.016 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.091 -0.007 0.029
probability of detection:
0.000 0.250 0.444
probability of detection:
0.000 0.750 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.800 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.795 0.333
samples: 18 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 31.58 %coverage: 100.00