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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199504-199506

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
7
10
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
2
2
9
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
7
10
10
14
23
47
0
0
0
0
12
15
30
57

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
8
54
77
0
8
15
23
0
0
0
0
15
15
69
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
12
18
18
25
40
82
0
0
0
0
21
26
53
100

hitrate: 0.231 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.00 1.50 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.83 3.13 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.154 Heidke skill score: -0.079
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.036
Kuipers skill score: -0.154 Kuipers skill score: -0.079
true Kuipers skill score: 0.162 true Kuipers skill score: 0.044
threat score:
0.200 0.250 0.000
threat score:
0.100 0.292 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.055 0.152 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.006 0.046 0.000
probability of detection:
1.000 0.500 0.000
probability of detection:
0.167 0.933 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.667 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.800 0.702 0.000
samples: 13 out of 57 samples: 57 out of 57
%coverage: 22.81 %coverage: 100.00